Air Canada investors have had a bumpy ride this year, watching the stock slide 8.4% year-to-date even as analysts signal mixed signals about where it might head next. With the TSX-listed airline now trading around $21.98 CAD and a cohort of Wall Street analysts offering competing views, there’s plenty to unpack for anyone trying to decide whether this is a buying opportunity or a stock to avoid. Here’s what the data actually shows.

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Current Price: $21.98 CAD · Market Cap: $5.77B CAD · P/E Ratio: 4.73 · YTD Change: -8.4%

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • 2026 price predictions lack consensus from primary sources
  • Share buyback program completion timeline unconfirmed
  • Near-term volatility — short-term technicals signal Sell
3Timeline signal
4What’s next
  • Average price target $24.78 CAD implies 34.53% upside (MarketBeat price targets)
  • Simply Wall St estimates stock trading 80.7% below fair value (MarketBeat price targets)
  • Short-term signals upgraded from Hold to Buy (StockInvest.us technical signals)

Key financial snapshot for Air Canada (AC.TO) on the TSX as of mid-July 2025.

Metric Value
Stock Symbol AC.TO
Exchange TSX
Previous Close $21.87 CAD
Market Cap $5.77B CAD
P/E Ratio (TTM) 4.73
EPS (TTM) $4.12
Revenue (2024) $22.26B CAD
Shares Outstanding 296.17M
52-Week High $26.18 CAD
52-Week Low $12.69 CAD

Why is Air Canada stock dropping?

Year-to-date, Air Canada shares have shed 8.4%, underperforming both the Canadian airline sector average (+44.8% over one year) and the broader Canadian market (+36.7%) according to data from Simply Wall St sector comparisons. The stock has also lagged its own 52-week performance range, which stretched from a low of $12.69 CAD to a high of $26.18 CAD.

Recent performance factors

Several forces appear to be weighing on the stock. The airline’s debt-to-equity ratio sits at a lofty 351.4%, which raises concerns among risk-averse investors even as operations generate solid revenue. Air Canada reported 2024 earnings of $1.72B CAD, down 24.43% year-over-year, though revenue inched up 1.93% to $22.26B CAD. That earnings contraction — even while top-line held — signals margin pressure that the market has been slow to shake off.

Why this matters

High debt loads amplify vulnerability when fuel costs spike or demand softens — a real concern for cyclical airline businesses. Investors watching leverage metrics closely should factor this alongside price targets.

YTD decline of 8.4%

On July 25, 2025, Air Canada closed at $21.98 CAD, up 0.503% from the prior session — a modest bounce, but one that hasn’t reversed the year’s losses. Short-term technical indicators reflect this hesitation: moving averages show a “Strong Sell” signal with 10 bearish versus 2 bullish signals, according to Investing.com Canada technical analysis (technical analysis data). Yet long-term averages tell a different story, suggesting the stock may hold a buying opportunity.

Is Air Canada stock a good stock to buy?

The question of whether Air Canada qualifies as a “good buy” depends on which metrics an investor prioritizes — and the picture here is genuinely split. On one side, a P/E of 4.73 looks cheap against the broader market. On the other, a forward P/E of 8.89 hints at normalized earnings expectations that make today’s price look less of a bargain.

Pros and cons analysis

Upsides

  • P/E of 4.73 makes the stock appear undervalued relative to sector peers
  • Trading 80.7% below Simply Wall St’s fair value estimate
  • Net margin of 11.57% and ROE of 177.01% TTM show strong profitability
  • Consensus Moderate Buy from 14 analysts signals institutional confidence

Downsides

  • High debt-to-equity of 351.4% increases financial risk
  • Short-term technicals show “Strong Sell” signal (10 Sell vs 2 Buy)
  • YTD performance down 8.4%, lagging sector and market
  • Cyclical airline business vulnerable to fuel costs and demand swings

Valuation metrics

The trailing P/E of 4.73 stands in stark contrast to the forward P/E of 8.89 — a gap that reflects Wall Street’s expectation of normalized, lower earnings in coming quarters. For value investors, that trailing multiple is the hook. For growth-focused investors, the forward multiple may be a warning sign that near-term earnings are unsustainably high. Notably, Simply Wall St valuation analysis (investment analytics platform) estimates Air Canada trades 80.7% below fair value, based on discounted cash flow modeling with a projected revenue growth rate of 5.82% per year.

“Trading at 80.7% below our estimate of its fair value.” — Simply Wall St (valuation analytics platform)

Air Canada: Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026?

Forecasts for 2026 are where confidence drops — and where investors should be most careful about accepting any single projection at face value.

2026 predictions

Looking at near-term horizons, StockInvest.us price forecasts (price forecasting service) places the 3-month prediction range between $14.01 and $20.11 — a wide band that reflects genuine uncertainty. For a longer 3-month horizon, a 90% probability model from the same source suggests a possible move to $29.70–$34.81, though such wide ranges should be treated with caution given the research confidence level.

The catch

Broad prediction ranges and probabilistic upside targets carry real error margins — especially for cyclical airline stocks where external factors like fuel prices, competitive capacity, and travel demand can upend any model.

Long-term outlook

On a 12-month horizon, analyst consensus from MarketBeat analyst consensus (aggregated analyst ratings) sets an average price target of $24.78 CAD — representing roughly 34.53% upside from the $18.42 reference price at that time. The highest analyst target sits at $32.00 CAD; the lowest at $19.00 CAD, according to data as of October 24, 2025. TipRanks analyst ratings (analyst rankings platform) reports a 37.60% upside consensus from a $17.91 baseline with a current average target of $24.64 CAD.

“The consensus among Wall Street equities research analysts is that investors should ‘moderate buy’ AC shares.” — MarketBeat (analyst consensus aggregator)

Why is Air Canada buying its shares back?

One significant development that could reshape the investment thesis is Air Canada’s share repurchase activity. Reports indicate the airline has bought back approximately 18% of its shares, a move that shrinks the share count and — in theory — lifts the per-share value for remaining holders.

Substantial issuer bid details

A $500 million substantial issuer bid was announced by Air Canada, representing a meaningful commitment of capital to reward existing shareholders. By reducing shares outstanding from the 296.17 million reported, the buyback effectively concentrates ownership and earnings per share among remaining investors — assuming the airline’s cash flow remains strong enough to fund the repurchase without taking on additional debt.

The upshot

For Canadian investors, a shrinking share count combined with a Moderate Buy consensus raises the stakes: if Air Canada executes its buyback while maintaining earnings, residual shareholders could see per-share gains even if the broader stock price stagnates. For Canadian investors, a shrinking share count combined with a Moderate Buy consensus raises the stakes, and you can find more information on Vols de Calgary à Toronto.

Share repurchase terms

The terms of the buyback — how and at what price the airline is repurchasing shares — will determine whether the program creates value or simply burns cash. Without access to the most current issuer bid filing, investors should cross-reference Air Canada’s official investor relations materials for the definitive framework.

Is Air Canada struggling financially?

The headline numbers tell a nuanced story. Revenue held steady — $22.26B CAD in 2024, up 1.93% — but earnings dropped 24.43% to $1.72B CAD, a margin contraction that points to cost pressures. However, trailing-twelve-month data tells a different, more encouraging story: TTM revenue of $22.34B CAD with net income of $1.48B CAD and EPS of $4.12, according to Stock Analysis TTM data (market data platform). The Q3 2025 EPS of $2.57 beat estimates by $0.99, demonstrating the airline can surprise to the upside when conditions align.

Q4 and full year 2025 results

Results for Q4 and full year 2025 are expected to include the seasonal softness typical of winter travel periods. Investors tracking performance should monitor operating margin trends and capacity utilization — not just headline revenue — when evaluating whether Air Canada is genuinely turning a corner on profitability.

What to watch

With a net margin of 11.57% and ROE of 177.01% on a trailing basis, the earnings story is healthier than the 2024 annual comparison suggests. That said, one quarter’s beat doesn’t change a structural reality: airlines are capital-intensive, fuel-exposed, and cyclical.

Ownership and shareholders

Air Canada trades on the TSX as AC.TO and is held by a mix of institutional and retail investors. Major institutional holders typically dominate ownership of TSX-listed airline stocks, which can both stabilize price action and amplify selling pressure during market downturns. Canadian investors can find the full shareholder registry through SEDAR filings for a complete picture of the ownership structure.

Related reading: Cup and Handle Pattern · S&P 500 Index Guide

Additional sources

stockinvest.us, investing.com

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Frequently asked questions

Does Air Canada have a stock?

Yes. Air Canada trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AC.TO. The stock is also tracked by U.S. over-the-counter markets under certain ADRs, though the primary listing is on the TSX.

What is Air Canada stock price history?

Air Canada shares have traded in a wide range over the past year, from a 52-week low of $12.69 CAD to a high of $26.18 CAD. The stock closed at $21.98 CAD on July 25, 2025. Year-over-year performance shows a gain of approximately 32.69% as reported by TradingView performance data (charting platform), though YTD performance is down 8.4%.

Who owns the most Air Canada stock?

Air Canada has a primarily institutional ownership structure, which is typical for large-cap TSX-listed companies. Major institutional investors — including pension funds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds focused on Canadian equities — hold the bulk of shares. The full registry is available through SEDAR filings for those who want the specific breakdown.

What is Air Canada stock price prediction?

Analyst consensus places the 12-month average price target at approximately $24.78 CAD, according to MarketBeat consensus aggregator — roughly 34.53% above the $18.42 reference price. Individual targets range from $19.00 to $32.00 CAD. Short-term 3-month projections from StockInvest.us price forecasts (price forecasting service) span $14.01–$20.11, reflecting higher uncertainty on shorter time horizons.

Is Air Canada stock undervalued?

Multiple signals suggest undervaluation. The trailing P/E of 4.73 is well below market averages and the forward multiple of 8.89. Simply Wall St estimates the stock trades 80.7% below fair value. With a consensus Moderate Buy rating from 14 analysts, the technical and fundamental picture — while far from unanimous — leans toward value territory for investors willing to accept airline-sector risk.

How to check Air Canada stock price TSX today?

The most current Air Canada TSX price is available through any major Canadian brokerage platform, the Toronto Stock Exchange website, or financial data platforms like Stock Analysis real-time quotes or TradingView live charts. Prices update in real time during market hours and may differ from the July 25, 2025 close of $21.98 CAD referenced in this article.

What is the latest Air Canada stock news?

Recent Air Canada news has centered on Q3 2025 earnings — EPS of $2.57 beat analyst estimates by $0.99 — and the company’s ongoing $500M substantial issuer bid buyback program. The short-term upgrade from Hold to Buy and the 18% share reduction through repurchases are the most actionable near-term signals for investors.

For Canadian investors weighing a position in Air Canada, the choice comes down to risk tolerance and time horizon. Those with a value-minded, long-term outlook may find the trailing P/E and Simply Wall St’s discount estimate compelling. Momentum traders should note that short-term technicals remain bearish even as the analyst consensus tilts bullish. Either way, the $500M buyback and Q3 earnings beat are the two data points worth tracking most closely in the coming months.